
Brent and WTI rose for a second session on Friday, to $99.86 and $91.62 a barrel, respectively, but remained on track for weekly losses of about 12%. Prices had fallen sharply as traders anticipated an end to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while new tanker attacks and Strait of Hormuz oil flows below 60% of capacity remained supply risks.
Prospects for reduced conflict risk have driven oil lower, potentially easing energy and transportation costs for feed supply chains. Continued attacks and constrained Hormuz flows could limit the decline or prompt a rebound in crude prices.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.