A farmer in Shelby County, Illinois, said harvest and most fieldwork were complete. Soybean yields were slightly above average, while corn yields were well below the five-year average; he attributed the weak corn outcome in part to excessive rain.
Below-average local corn production may reduce feed-grain availability and support corn prices, while above-average soybean yields are a modestly bearish supply signal for soybeans.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.