
USDA's September estimates reflect derecho and drought damage after an August forecast of record corn output. Iowa corn rated good-to-excellent fell from 69% on Aug.
9 to 43% on Sept. 6, and early frost threatened some late-maturing crops in the Upper Midwest.
Sharply lower Iowa crop ratings signal reduced corn and soybean supplies for feed buyers, supporting bullish price expectations for grains and meal.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.