
The rupiah closed 0.04% weaker on Friday at Rp18,089 per US dollar, compared with Rp18,082 the previous session. Market concerns about possible oil-supply disruptions grew after tanker security incidents were reported in the Middle East, including at least five incidents since November 1, according to UKMTO.
The threat of disruption to oil shipping can lift crude prices and worsen Indonesia’s import bill, while also weighing on the rupiah. That combination is supportive for USD/IDR and crude prices.
After 338 past bullish events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.