
Bank Danamon chief economist Irman Faiz said geopolitical conditions are a more fundamental influence on the rupiah than MSCI’s consideration of changing Indonesia’s market status. The MSCI-related stock selloff prompted foreign equity outflows, but Faiz said these flows do not fundamentally explain the currency’s weakness.
Worsening geopolitical risk can prompt foreign investors to withdraw from Indonesian assets, putting downward pressure on the rupiah and upward pressure on USD/IDR.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.