Loading…
The US announced 25% duties on about $50 billion of Chinese goods on June 15, and China retaliated with 25% duties on about $38 billion of US goods, including soybeans, corn and wheat, starting July 6. The administration then threatened a 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports, and most grain and oilseed futures fell sharply over the past month.
Tariffs on US soybeans and grains reduce China's demand for US exports, pressuring US futures and basis while supporting the case for lower prices. Feed buyers may see cheaper US soybean meal and corn, though the market is debating how much of the risk is already priced in.
foodbusinessnews.netRon SterkJun 26, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
