
Ukraine and Russia shipped a record 2.524 million tonnes of wheat to Asia in August, with Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and India as key buyers. Black Sea grain was priced $40-50 per tonne below competitors, and Syria dropped a deal for 1 million tonnes of Russian wheat over credit problems.
Cheap Black Sea wheat is capturing Asian demand, which weighs on competing origins. The cancelled Syrian deal removes some near-term demand for Russian wheat.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.