Brent and WTI posted steep weekly losses, falling more than 16% and nearly 13%, respectively, despite small gains on Friday. Investors weighed the possibility of renewed US-Iran fighting, diplomatic efforts, and reported tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
Renewed conflict or disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping could constrain Middle Eastern oil flows and lift crude prices, although diplomatic progress could ease supply concerns.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.