Saudi Arabia drives OPEC output recovery in October, exports near pre-war levels

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Sep 17, 2019Oil plunges on report Saudi Arabia may soon restore most of lost output-6.9%
• Mar 8, 2020Saudi Arabia slashes April oil selling prices as OPEC+ fails to extend output curbs-23.0%
• Sep 27, 2018Saudi Arabia in short-term oil fix, fears extra U.S. supply next year+6.1%
• Mar 30, 2020Oil falls amid Saudi Arabia-Russia price war, coronavirus hits demand+64.1%
• Jun 30, 2020OPEC and Russia likely to ease output cuts in August – Reuters — Octa+2.3%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Sep 17, 2019Oil plunges on report Saudi Arabia may soon restore most of lost output-5.8%
• Mar 8, 2020Saudi Arabia slashes April oil selling prices as OPEC+ fails to extend output curbs-27.3%
• Sep 27, 2018Saudi Arabia in short-term oil fix, fears extra U.S. supply next year+5.2%
• May 3, 2026OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, to boost oil production | AP News-9.5%
• Mar 30, 2020Oil falls amid Saudi Arabia-Russia price war, coronavirus hits demand+21.9%