Oil plunged nearly 7% in London on September 17 after Reuters reported Saudi Arabia was close to restoring 70% of lost output, with full production expected within weeks. Brent fell as low as $64.48 and WTI dropped toward $59.42.
Quicker Saudi recovery reduces the supply risk premium, pushing crude and diesel costs lower for feed producers.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.