
Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday and fell about 13.2% over the week, while WTI lost about 12.8%. Hopes for a negotiated end to the war, following U.S. midterm results and reports of Iranian flexibility on nuclear issues, weighed on prices, although risks around the Strait of Hormuz remained.
The prospect of reduced conflict risk could restore regional oil flows and ease the risk premium, pressuring crude prices. Ongoing Hormuz security concerns may constrain further declines.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.