
Brent crude fell sharply over the week through November 6 as US election results and renewed diplomatic efforts raised hopes of an end to the US-Iran conflict. Despite the global crude decline, petrol and diesel prices in major Indian cities remained unchanged for a thirteenth consecutive month.
Lower crude prices can reduce energy and freight costs for feed supply chains, but India’s unchanged pump prices mean the decline has not yet passed through to domestic fuel users. The price drop reflects reduced perceived geopolitical supply risk.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.