Crude and refined product futures rose on March 24 as doubts about U.S.-Iran talks offset Monday's selloff. WTI gained about $3 to $91.15 and ULSD April rose about 5.8%, with a fire at Valero's 424,000 b/d Port Arthur refinery adding support.
A major refinery outage cuts domestic diesel supply, which lifts fuel and freight costs for feed buyers, and the Iran uncertainty keeps crude prices supported.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.