Reuters reports the UAE plans to exit OPEC on 1 May, highlighting Gulf rifts amid Iran-war energy crisis

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Feb 28, 2026Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades | Reuters+35.6%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-8.1%
• Apr 30, 2026Oil retreats after hitting four-year high on concern of US-Iran war escalation | Reuters-10.8%
• Mar 18, 2024Oil prices inch higher amid attacks on Russian energy facilities | Reuters-0.9%
• Mar 6, 2026Iran conflict boosts US Gulf oil prices to highest since 2020 | Reuters+18.2%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026European markets hurting as Iran war widens | Reuters+31.0%
• Feb 28, 2026Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades | Reuters+31.0%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-5.7%
• Apr 30, 2026Oil retreats after hitting four-year high on concern of US-Iran war escalation | Reuters-15.3%
• Mar 18, 2024Oil prices inch higher amid attacks on Russian energy facilities | Reuters-0.3%