
Diesel ended October at $6.35 per gallon, while trucking costs rose nearly 71% year over year. In Iowa, corn basis weakened by a few cents and soybean bids were down $0.50; barge freight rose 21% and ocean vessel operating costs were about 30% higher.
Funds had sold corn over the prior two months but remained net long as commercial ownership increased.
Higher trucking, barge and ocean costs raise the expense of moving grain and can widen regional price spreads. Weaker local basis and lower soybean bids reduce sellers’ net returns, even though cash prices were higher than a year earlier.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.