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RFD-TV reports that bulk grain freight rates rose from the second to the third quarter of 2025 on U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest routes, with Gulf-to-Japan up 17%. O'Neil Commodity Consulting data shows rates still below year-ago and four-year averages.
Chinese demand for raw materials, Paraná River low water and Golden Week stockpiling drove the increase.
Higher ocean freight raises the landed cost of U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans, reducing export competitiveness and supporting Gulf basis discounts. Expected vessel supply growth may limit further increases.
rfdtv.comTony St. JamesDec 4, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
