Delays on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers have created a grain shipping backlog, with freight costs to Gulf Coast export terminals near record highs. Cash premiums on soybeans at river terminals have fallen to their lowest level since 2011, and an Ohio lock closure has left 65 towboats waiting to pass.
Expensive and delayed river freight lowers the price that barge-dependent grain can fetch at inland terminals, while high soybean stocks and record corn supplies weigh on prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.