
Commo18 says the October 9 USDA report's bearish corn surprise, with yield at 181.2 bu/acre and ending stocks near 1.85 billion bushels, lowered Chicago prices but not delivered prices at North African and Middle Eastern ports. Handysize freight from Argentina to the Mediterranean rose from the mid-$50s to the low-$70s per tonne.
Freight costs are offsetting origin futures declines for importers, so buyers in the Mediterranean and Middle East see limited relief and elevated delivered prices.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.