Low River Levels, Soaring Barge Freight Curb U.S. Grain Exports

After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2026Low Water on U.S. Rivers Disrupts Grain Exports, Raising Costs for Ag Supply Chains - Agrolatam-0.5%
• Jan 29, 2026Low water on US rivers shifts some export paths | World Grain-0.5%
• Jun 22, 2026Decrease in Freight Rates for Ukrainian Grain Exports-1.4%
• Oct 22, 2026Rising Ocean Freight Raises Costs for U.S. Grain - RFD-TV-0.7%
• Oct 18, 2026Global Grain Freight Costs Surge as Shipping Disruptions Threaten U.S. Export Competitiveness+1.0%

After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 3, 2017Soaring river freight hits U.S. farmers - Grainews+1.0%
• Sep 4, 2024Low water levels on the Mississippi River impact barges and grain exports before harvest-2.0%
• Sep 18, 2023High Barge Freight, Low River Levels Detrimental to Farmers at Harvest-3.3%
• Nov 7, 2022Mississippi River's Low Levels Causing Barge Traffic Issues+0.3%
• Oct 1, 2025Low Mississippi River Levels Pressure Grain Barge Movement - RFD-TV+2.0%

After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 6, 2023Low river levels, barge freight, and widening basis-0.5%
• Oct 3, 2017Soaring river freight hits U.S. farmers - Grainews-0.7%
• Sep 4, 2024Low water levels on the Mississippi River impact barges and grain exports before harvest-1.4%
• Sep 18, 2023High Barge Freight, Low River Levels Detrimental to Farmers at Harvest-8.5%
• Nov 7, 2022Mississippi River's Low Levels Causing Barge Traffic Issues-0.7%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.