
Low water on the Mississippi System is reducing barge capacity during harvest, with restrictions on tow sizes and draft depths at Cairo and Memphis. USDA projects record US corn production of 427 million metric tons and exports of 75.6 mmt.
Soybean export sales are down sharply as China has not finalized purchases.
Reduced barge capacity raises freight rates and pressures Gulf-bound basis, while record corn exports and weak soybean demand shape the price outlook for each crop.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 167 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.9%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.