Shallow Parana river pressures Argentinian FOB soybean meal, oil basis levels

After 167 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.9%), and -1.2% over 20.

• Sep 12, 2024Brazilian soybean meal widens gap to Argentina | S&P Global+1.3%
• Aug 19, 2021Argentinian soy meal market surges on demand, slow farmer selling | S&P Global-1.4%
• Oct 1, 2025Low Mississippi River Levels Pressure Grain Barge Movement - RFD-TV+1.4%
• Jul 27, 2021Argentina declares emergency due to low water levels in Paraná River - BNamericas+0.8%
• Mar 30, 2020Chaos in Argentina: 50% less soybean meal is currently-6.2%

After 85 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.7%), and +3.1% over 20.

• Mar 30, 2020Chaos in Argentina: 50% less soybean meal is currently-1.6%
• Sep 28, 2021Argentine exports of soy and oil products down $620 mi due to low water level on Paraná River - DatamarNews+0.7%
• Dec 14, 2020Argentina's soybean crushers pull meal, oil offers as strikes continue - Fastmarkets+1.2%
• Jul 9, 2021Drought brings shipping of soy products on Paraná River in Argentina to a halt+3.0%
• Sep 30, 2021Palm oil futures hit all-time high as China rushes to fill soy oil shortage | S&P Global+2.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.