
Argentina has lost about US$620 million in soymeal and soyoil export value this year because low Paraná River levels limit barge loadings around Rosario. The gap between Argentine and Brazilian FOB prices for soymeal is at its widest since 2013.
Over 25 million tonnes of soy by-products have shipped since January.
Higher logistics costs and reduced barge capacity cut Argentine export competitiveness and tighten physical flows of soymeal and soyoil. This supports global meal and oil prices while Argentine FOB offers weaken.
After 167 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.9%), and -1.2% over 20.
After 85 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.7%), and +3.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.