
Low water levels on the Parana River in Argentina, at 9.44 meters at San Lorenzo on September 20, forced tanker ships to cut loads by up to 12.5 percent. This tightened soyoil supply for Brazil and widened the Paranagua premium to CBOT to about 8 cents per pound from roughly 1.8 cents.
Barge and tanker constraints raise soyoil delivered costs in Brazil, supporting soyoil prices and pushing biodiesel feedstock costs higher, which can also lift demand for alternative vegetable oils.
After 85 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.7%), and +3.1% over 20.
After 15 past bullish logistics events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +3.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.