Low water on US rivers shifts some export paths

After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2026Low Water on U.S. Rivers Disrupts Grain Exports, Raising Costs for Ag Supply Chains - Agrolatam-0.5%
• Sep 30, 2022Low River Levels, Soaring Barge Freight Curb U.S. Grain Exports+0.4%
• Feb 13, 2024Ukraine on track to export all 2023 grain, says Britain | Reuters-0.5%
• May 1, 2024Ukrainian grain exports rebound as ship arrivals near pre-war levels+2.2%
• Nov 23, 2023Ukraine's farmers pin hopes on export corridor as war cost mounts | Reuters-0.0%

After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2026Low Water on U.S. Rivers Disrupts Grain Exports, Raising Costs for Ag Supply Chains - Agrolatam-0.3%
• Dec 5, 2017Wooden Dams And River Jams Strain US Grain Exports+2.8%
• Sep 30, 2022Low River Levels, Soaring Barge Freight Curb U.S. Grain Exports+1.0%
• Sep 4, 2024Low water levels on the Mississippi River impact barges and grain exports before harvest-1.4%
• Jun 24, 2026When the River Runs Low, Southern Grain Farmers Pay the Most - Oklahoma Farm Report-1.9%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.