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The yuan weakened further despite PBOC efforts to stabilise it, with the currency closing at 6.4743 per dollar, its lowest since January. Trump threatened a 10% tariff on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, on top of a 25% levy on Chinese goods announced earlier and set to take effect July 6.
Analysts attributed the currency decline to escalating trade war fears.
Expanded US tariffs on Chinese imports threaten US agricultural export flows, particularly soybeans, and could shift China's buying elsewhere. A weaker yuan further raises the dollar cost of imports, adding downward pressure on US soybean prices.
scmp.comDaniel RenJun 19, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Tariff threats on another $200bn of Chinese goods on June 19 started the depreciation pressure that carried into the window, but the event falls before the 5-day window.
