
Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised fertilizer transport costs on alternative routes to more than $200 per tonne, from about $50 before the conflict, and reduced sales volumes below production capacity. SABIC Agri-Nutrients reported a 21% decline in first-half net profit; an AGBI analysis expects tighter global urea supply to support fertilizer markets beyond 2026 if shipping conditions normalize.
Higher freight costs and constrained Gulf exports tighten available urea supply and pressure producer margins, supporting urea prices. The article cites expectations of longer-term supply tightness, while normalization of shipping could ease the pressure.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.