NOAA's El Nino winter outlook: 3 findings on temperature, rain and drought

After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Nov 22, 2025Temperature Swings and Limited Precipitation Drive Drought Changes+1.0%
• Sep 8, 2025The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States | September 8, 2025 | Drought.gov-0.1%
• Mar 25, 2025The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML-1.5%
• Oct 22, 2018Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook | NOAA Climate.gov-1.2%
• Apr 21, 2025El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook-0.1%

After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Nov 22, 2025Temperature Swings and Limited Precipitation Drive Drought Changes+0.3%
• Mar 25, 2025The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML+0.7%
• Oct 22, 2018Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook | NOAA Climate.gov-1.4%
• Apr 21, 2025El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook+1.3%
• Oct 17, 2025La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather - AgWeb+3.4%

After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2025The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML-1.9%
• Jul 5, 2017Wild Wheat Swings Spurred by U.S. Drought Threat, Export Outlook - Bloomberg-0.9%
• Oct 21, 2022La Nina-Enhanced Drought Brings Slow Start to Winter Wheat-0.4%
• Dec 17, 2021Drought and Demand Drive the 2022 Wheat Outlook - AgWeb+4.9%
• Jun 14, 2021Canadian Drought Outlook - agriculture.canada.ca+5.8%

After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2025The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML+0.0%
• Jan 10, 2023What is El Niño, and how does it affect the weather and temperatures?-4.6%
• Jun 1, 2018Water, temperature and crop productivity research-1.4%
• Sep 18, 2017How El Niño and La Niña affect the winter jet stream and U.S. climate | NOAA Climate.gov-2.0%
• Jun 18, 2018Central Ohio Summer 2018 Update and El Nino Predictions for Winter | Growing Franklin-1.4%