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Mar 25, 2025WEATHERUS

The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML

A NOAA/AOML study published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science projects more extreme winter droughts in the US Southwest and more extreme floods in the Southeast and Northeast. The study links these trends to a stronger ENSO influence and regional rainfall changes.

Droughts caused about $368 billion in US losses from 1980 to 2024.

WHY IT MATTERS

The study is a long-range research finding with no immediate supply change. It suggests greater future weather volatility for US crops, but it has little bearing on current futures prices.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)Palm Oil

SOURCE
aoml.noaa.govAOML CommunicationsMar 25, 2025

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d -0.9%5d -1.5%20d +3.1%

After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.

Jun 5, 2019Droughts and flooding rains impact market | The Land | NSW+0.9%
Mar 13, 2019The Economic Impacts of Drought on US Agriculture+4.3%
Dec 30, 2025Impact of Rain and Drought on December Grain Prices+0.0%
May 2, 2023Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security+2.7%
May 30, 20253 Top Corn-Growing States Report Extreme Drought, or Worse-0.3%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d -0.5%5d +0.7%20d +2.8%

After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Mar 13, 2019The Economic Impacts of Drought on US Agriculture+2.2%
Dec 30, 2025Impact of Rain and Drought on December Grain Prices-0.7%
Jan 26, 2024Drought, Disease, Pests Impacted the 2023 Soybean Growing Season - ProAg-1.6%
May 2, 2023Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security+1.0%
May 30, 20253 Top Corn-Growing States Report Extreme Drought, or Worse-0.0%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d -0.2%5d -1.9%20d +1.7%

After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

Jun 5, 2019Droughts and flooding rains impact market | The Land | NSW+3.5%
Apr 24, 2018English Portal - Towards a better understanding of the impact of extreme climate events on wheat yields+3.4%
May 2, 2023Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security-0.4%
May 29, 2023Corn, Soybeans and Wheat in the Grips of Drought - AgWeb-1.4%
Jun 15, 2023Drought Concerns Grow as 57% of Corn, 51% of Soybeans in the U.S. Now Considered to Be in Drought - AgWeb+4.2%

Palm Oilno directional readSO FAR1d -0.3%5d +0.0%20d -6.9%

After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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