
Brent and WTI rose for a second consecutive session on Friday but remained down 11.8% for the week. Earlier declines reflected hopes that the US election outcome could encourage de-escalation of the Iran war, while fresh tanker attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about crude supply security.
The prospect of reduced conflict risk and lower disruption fears has weighed on oil, while attacks on tankers support prices by raising the risk of interrupted exports. Lower crude prices can ease energy-related costs for feed production and transport, although renewed shipping risks may limit the decline.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.