Mexican beef exports to the United States have expanded as the screwworm-related border closure halted shipments of live cattle, prompting producers to fatten and process more animals in Mexico. USDA projects 2026 shipments at about 400,000 tonnes, up 23% year over year; SuKarne accounts for roughly 75% of Mexico’s exports.
More Mexican beef entering the US adds to meat availability and competes with domestic beef, although low US cattle inventories and high prices are supporting demand. The figures point to bearish pressure on US beef prices relative to a tighter domestic supply outlook.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.