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Crude and gasoline prices turned lower as signs of progress in US-Iran diplomacy raised the prospect of Middle Eastern supplies returning to the market. Prices had initially risen after Ukrainian drone attacks hit Russian refineries, including the Yanos refinery, which halted operations after an attack.
Potentially restored Middle Eastern flows are bearish for crude, while refinery outages in Russia could tighten distillate supply and support refined-product prices.
barchart.comRich AsplundNov 6, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
