
The offshore yuan and Australian dollar recovered on Tuesday after President Trump said he expected trade talks with China to succeed and planned to meet Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. The rebound followed a sharp yuan drop on Monday after China announced higher tariffs on $60 billion of US goods.
Signs of a possible US-China deal reduce the risk of lost Chinese demand for US soybeans and corn, which supports feed grain prices, though analysts note the market may be overreacting to Trump's comments.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 22 past bearish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.