
U.S. Midwest ammonia prices climbed to about $875 per short ton after rising more than 30% from late June to early October. Imports from Trinidad and Tobago fell about 34% this year, and Nutrien shut its Trinidad nitrogen operations indefinitely in October amid gas shortages, tightening supply during the autumn application season.
Reduced Trinidad exports and limited replacement supplies constrain U.S. ammonia availability, while much of the product normally reaches farmers by barge. The tighter supply is pushing fertilizer costs higher, increasing crop production expenses.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.