Chicago soybean futures fell 10% over the past month as favorable US harvest weather and higher production expectations weighed on prices. StoneX raised its 2026/27 US yield forecast to 55 bushels per acre, implying a crop of about 128.6 million tonnes, while USDA data showed 88% of the soybean area harvested by November 1.
Soybean oil prices also declined, and lower South American export quotations could reduce the competitiveness of Ukrainian soybeans.
A larger expected US crop would increase available soybean supplies and intensify export competition, pressuring soybean and soybean oil prices. Lower world prices could weaken Ukrainian export demand and prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.