
Wheat futures were lower Friday morning after gains in the previous session, with easing Black Sea conflict concerns cited as a source of pressure. Separately, Hang Tung Resources signed $600 million in deals with Chinese buyers for wheat and sorghum, while weekly U.S. wheat export sales remained above the same period last year.
Reduced conflict risk could ease concerns about Black Sea supply disruptions and weigh on wheat prices. The reported Chinese purchases provide some demand support for U.S. wheat and sorghum.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.