The EU’s 2026 soybean production is forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, about 20% below 2025, with average yields estimated 15% below the five-year average. Heat and severe drought reduced output across much of Europe, while Germany harvested about 133,800 tonnes, up slightly year over year because of expanded acreage.
Lower European soybean output increases reliance on imported beans and meal, tightening regional feed-ingredient availability and supporting soybean and soybean meal prices. Germany’s modest increase is too small to offset the wider EU decline.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.