
The FAO Food Price Index fell to 133.9 points in October from a revised 135.6 in September, though it remained 5.9% above a year earlier. The cereal index dropped 4.5% month on month as weaker import demand and improved production prospects, especially for Argentine wheat, weighed on wheat prices; corn was pressured by the US harvest and expectations of ample South American supply.
Vegetable oils rose 0.3%, while dairy and meat indexes declined; sugar rose 6.6% amid rain-delayed harvesting in Brazil.
Weaker import demand and expectations of larger supplies in key exporting regions add downside pressure to wheat and corn prices. The contrasting gains in vegetable oils and sugar reflect tighter or weather-disrupted supply, while ample dairy supply and soft demand weigh on dairy prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.