Up to a Third Less Crop: Worrying Data Arrive from Europe

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jul 7, 2022UPDATE 1-Europe's wheat crop set to be mixed bag after torrid weather-5.1%
• Dec 15, 2023European wheat crop already on the ropes+2.0%
• Nov 1, 2024Europe Braces for More Crop Loss and Damage as Rains Lash Down+0.0%
• Jul 30, 2026Heatwaves have taken 9 million tons of cereals from Europe. The losses amount to 2 billion euros.-1.4%
• Jul 23, 2021Crop markets wake up to evolving drought disaster | The Western Producer-0.4%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 10, 2023Is It Time to Start Worrying About Brazil's Safrinha Corn Crop?-0.6%
• Nov 1, 2024Europe Braces for More Crop Loss and Damage as Rains Lash Down+2.5%
• Oct 27, 2026From maize to coffee, El Nino likely to affect various crops across the world - The HinduBusinessLine+0.0%
• Jul 30, 2026Heatwaves have taken 9 million tons of cereals from Europe. The losses amount to 2 billion euros.-1.4%
• May 13, 2021Brazil's thirsty corn crop and dry forecast a boon for U.S. exporters - DatamarNews-7.7%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2022Third Consecutive La Niña? What to Expect from Soybean Yields in the United States, Brazil and Argentina+2.7%
• Jul 11, 2022What to Expect as Corn Yields Face a Third Straight La Niña - farmdoc daily-10.1%
• Jun 23, 2023US Corn Crop Withers to Worst Conditions Since 1992, Driving Prices Higher-1.2%
• Jul 31, 2022It’s a Late Crop | Red River Farm Network-1.4%
• Sep 30, 2019Dryness impacting Argentine crops | 2019-09-30 | World Grain+3.8%