
The European Commission estimates EU-27 wheat production at 131.3 million tonnes in 2026/27, down from 143.4 million tonnes the previous season. With consumption holding near 113.1 million tonnes and exports forecast at 29.9 million tonnes, EU wheat ending stocks are expected to decline noticeably.
Lower production against steady domestic use and substantial exports tightens available supplies, supporting EU wheat prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.