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Oil was on track for a steep weekly decline after US midterm election results raised hopes of de-escalation in the war on Iran and increased regional crude exports. Tanker attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz continued to support prices by threatening supply flows.
A potential return of Middle Eastern crude exports adds supply and pressures prices, while attacks on shipping could disrupt flows and put a floor under the market.
live.euronext.comNov 6, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
