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University of Missouri researchers modeled the effects of Mexican feeder-cattle imports remaining well below historical levels through 2031, following restrictions imposed in 2025 over New World screwworm concerns. They project that reduced imports would leave U.S. cattle prices higher than if trade returned to historical levels, even if more cattle are finished and processed in Mexico and Mexican beef adds to market competition.
Fewer Mexican feeder cattle entering the United States would tighten U.S. cattle supplies and support cattle prices; additional Mexican beef supply could temper the effect but is not projected to erase it. The story concerns a modeled outcome rather than a new restriction or immediate supply change.
aginfo.netNov 6, 2026After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
