Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Hormuz Risks Persist, Can Brent Reclaim $104?

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Sep 24, 2018Bullish forecast for oil as Brent touches $80 per barrel+3.4%
• Oct 1, 2026Brent crude oil surges past $102 amid Hormuz tensions, US-Iran conflict-2.3%
• Apr 18, 2026As oil prices plunge below $91 after weeks, a new Hormuz crisis emerges | Oil and Gas News | Al Jazeera+13.9%
• Oct 28, 2026Arab News | Oil rises more than 1% as supply concerns persist-2.1%
• May 27, 2026Canola prices are rising on forecasts of high oil prices by the end of the year.+0.7%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 24, 2018Bullish forecast for oil as Brent touches $80 per barrel+4.9%
• Oct 1, 2026Brent crude oil surges past $102 amid Hormuz tensions, US-Iran conflict+2.6%
• Apr 18, 2026As oil prices plunge below $91 after weeks, a new Hormuz crisis emerges | Oil and Gas News | Al Jazeera+15.0%
• Oct 28, 2026Arab News | Oil rises more than 1% as supply concerns persist-4.7%
• May 27, 2026Canola prices are rising on forecasts of high oil prices by the end of the year.-1.3%

After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.

• Aug 26, 2024Global Natural Gas Prices Seesaw Amid Increasing Supply Risks — LNG Recap+5.6%
• Feb 24, 2022How Will Russia, Ukraine Conflict Impact U.S. LNG and Natural Gas Market?+2.2%
• Oct 29, 2026QatarEnergy turns to US LNG with Woodside deal as Hormuz force majeure drags on | The National-1.8%
• Oct 29, 2026Exclusive-QatarEnergy buys US, other LNG to hedge future Hormuz disruptions By Reuters-1.8%
• Apr 8, 2026Big petrol and diesel price relief on the cards – Daily Investor-8.4%