
Oil steadied on Friday and Brent approached $100 after a volatile week, but both benchmarks remained on course for their largest weekly losses since April. Traders had lowered prices on expectations of U.S.-Iran de-escalation and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while weighing President Donald Trump’s comments on Iran’s nuclear program and possible further action.
A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could restore shipments and reduce logistics costs, putting downward pressure on crude; renewed hostilities could reverse that pressure.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.