
Brent and WTI futures rose on Friday following reports of fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s IRGC said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents, while Saudi Arabia warned of potential danger near its Yanbu oil export hub.
Attacks and warnings near oil shipping routes and export infrastructure raise the prospect of disrupted shipments, supporting crude prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.