
WTI traded just above $90, extending a recovery from the previous day’s low as U.S.-Iran tensions and threats to commercial traffic sustained market concerns. Hopes for diplomacy after the U.S. midterm elections and caution ahead of the U.S. employment report limited buyers’ conviction.
Disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz support crude by threatening supply flows, while diplomatic progress could reduce that risk premium and pressure prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.