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Brent and WTI rose on Friday as traders weighed the risk of renewed U.S.-Iran military escalation against signs of possible diplomacy. Rapidan Energy Group’s Bob McNally put the chance of fighting resuming at 80%, while Iran reportedly sent Washington a nuclear proposal through Qatar.
Renewed conflict could disrupt Middle Eastern oil shipments and lift crude prices, while a diplomatic deal could ease the risk premium and weigh on them.
cnbc.comLee Ying ShanNov 6, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
