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Oil and liquids production growth in the Americas is estimated at 1.64 million barrels per day in 2026, led by gains in Brazil and the United States. The increase is expected to offset less than one-quarter of the Middle East production losses linked to the US-Iran war; the UAE also set a new production record in October.
New Americas supply only partly replaces the larger Middle East losses, leaving global crude availability tighter and supporting prices. Further growth from the UAE could temper that support if it continues.
energyintel.comAuthor Gary Peach, New York Editor Luke JohnsonNov 6, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
