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Front-month Brent prices spiked by as much as 13% as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. Longer-dated contracts also moved, with timespreads rallying.
The shift in the futures curve suggests traders expect the conflict to last.
A steep, persistent rise in crude prices and a stronger near-term curve signal higher energy input costs for feed producers and ocean and land transport. The move may also lift biofuel-linked vegetable oil prices.
bloomberg.comYongchang ChinJul 1, 2025After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
