
Brent rose 3.88% to $98.29 a barrel and WTI gained 0.61% to $91.07 on November 6, rebounding after steep losses earlier in the week. Uncertainty over Iran, tanker incidents in the Gulf, and declines in US crude and fuel inventories supported prices, despite hopes for peace talks.
Iran-related threats and elevated shipping insurance costs keep a risk premium in crude, while lower US inventories add near-term support. The price direction is bullish as supply disruption risks persist.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.