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Brent and WTI rebounded Thursday after falling more than 8% the previous day, as traders assessed whether the US election result would increase pressure for a diplomatic settlement of the Iran conflict. The premium for near-term Brent deliveries narrowed sharply, indicating that traders were pricing in a lower risk of immediate supply shortages.
Reduced expectations of near-term shortages and a possible settlement weigh on the crude risk premium, although ongoing conflict and blocked Iranian exports leave supply risks in place.
marketwatch.comNov 5, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
